Estimating
what the Crude Oil Demand Could be for the US
Transportation Sector in Ten
Years if We Make a Concerted Effort to
Conserve
Revised Aug. 3, 2007
Crude demand should be
proportional to the product of the following variables which would
be 2006
averages.
v1
= load while driving/mile = power needed to: accelerate the vehicle and its
cargo up to speed + over come wind resistance and rolling resistance + run accessories. Some of
the variables that determine these loads are SA, aerodynamic efficiency, tire
size, weight of vehicle and efficiency
of accessories to name a few.
v2 = average thermal
efficiency of engine during average trip (work to crankshaft/energy in)
v3 = hybrid factor = {(percent
hybrids in use) * .7 + (percent other vehicles) * 1} - currently percent hybrid
is low, but if all
vehicles were hybrid then v3 would be .7 This factor assumes
that the hybrids are replacing a vehicle of similar size, shape and weight. The
value of .7 may be a bit lower than what hybrids can boast today. But in time
with improvements in the following technology it is thought the .7 factor will be realized:
1)
regenerative braking - saving some of the energy that is usually
dissipated in the brakes for later use
2) smaller
engines running at optimum engine speed - possible because
there is an electric motor that can help supply power during
peek load times such as acceleration
3) idling will
we reduced by turning the engine off when
stopped
v4 =
increase in vehicle's fuel consumption due to poor driving habits
(a function of
driving speeds above and belove optimum, a driver's practice of
quick acceleration and hard breaking)
v5=
increase in vehicle's
fuel consumption due to poor vehicle maintenance (examples: a vehicle with a dirty air filter,
a vehicle
that needs tuning and new spark plugs, a
vehicle with under inflated tires, and a vehicle with the improper
or dirty oil)
v6 = miles / trip
v7 = cars /
people in car
v8 = Gallons
of Crude Oil / gallon of fuel refined
v9
= gallons of fuel refined / gallons delivered to the pump
(the denominator is equal to
gallons of fuel refined - gallons of fuel it takes trucks and
mechanisms to get it to the pump)
v10
= Gallon delivered to the pump / gallons not lost to
vaporization and available to burn (note v8 and v9 would be close to 1 -
these values would be larger
and of greater interest if we were discussing hydrogen
fuel)
v11= total load of
driving including friction / non friction load of driving
v12
= trips / year
v13 = actual path at legal speed with intermittent stopping for
everyone's average daily commute/ idealized path at legal
speed without stops for everyone's average daily
commute (this is a variable that is effected by traffic control variables such as: speed limits and stoplight timing)
v14 = total number
of people working
v15 =
percent of vehicles that use gasoline or diesel verses using
renewables such as solar, wind, biofuels or electricity
assuming none of it is made from crude oil.
Crude
(Crude demand currently) =
v1*v2*v3*v4*v5*v6*v7*v8*v9*v10*v11*v12*v13*v14*v15
In the
following variables the t
represents what the
factors will be in ten years :
Crudet
(Crude demand in ten
years) =
v1t*v2t*v3t*v4t*v5t*v6t*v7t*v8t*v9t*v10t*v11t*v12t*v13t*v14t*v15t
But it can be more
helpful to calculate the percent of crude needed in
ten years over what is used today =
100*Crudet/Crude.
So a new set
of f variables will be defined as the future factor divided by the
present factor. A couple examples
follow:
f1=v1t/v1 and
f2=v2t/v2!
So the
term: 100* (f1*f2*f3*f4*f5*f6*f7*f8*f9*f10*f11*f12*f13*f14*f15)
= 100 * Crudet/Crude = the percent of crude
needed in ten years over what is used today.
Below
are some estimates by considering what might be possible.
Numbers won't necessarily be less than 1 but it is better if they
would be.
Car
manufacture factors:
f1=.7 (more cars - few trucks, lighter and more
aerodynamic vehicles)
f2=.6
(match engine size to what the median
load demand on the vehicle is rather than basing it on the marketing
appeal while using more diesel engines and for all engines get
more work from the exhaust gas in some
fashion)
f3=.73 (assuming
percent hybrid to be 90% in the following equation
{(percent hybrids in use
in ten years) * .7 + (percent other vehicles in ten years) *
1}/{(percent hybrids in use
now) * .7 + (percent other vehicles now) * 1}[the denominator is
assumed to be close to 1])
Consumer
factors:
f4=.92 (with fewer cars on
the roads it should help reduce reasons to use bad
driving habits. Higher fuel prices will also cause some drivers to
use better driving habits to save money, especially if they
are educated as how to do so!)
increase
in vehicle's fuel consumption due to poor driving
habits
f5=.95
(if you remember to change your oil most shops will also try to
sell you an air filter too. Don't forget about your plugs - you
might need to go somewhere else to do that though)
f6=.6
(move closer to work or move work
closer to people - in general smarter
growth)
f7= .55
(car pool, vanpool and/or use public
transportation {if it doesn't exist or is ineffective where it is
most needed, then local governments with the help of the federal
government need to develop or improve it})
Oil Company factors:
f8=1.1 (refinery efficiency may
decrease since a higher percentage of heavy crude will be used over
what is now used due to a number of factors)
f9=.98
(probably won't change much since
the v9 variable is close to 1 already)
f10=.99
(probably won't change
much since the v10 variable is already close to 1)
f11=.99
(though friction is a significant
load on fuel consumption the improvements in lubricants that would
reduce this will not probably be significant due to the extensive
research in this area already though and improvements that are made
could possible help improve efficiency of all mechanical devices in
a short order of time)
Government and
employer factors:
f12=.85 (go to a 4 day work
week would help and/or encourage some people to work at home, even if its just one day a week)
f13=.95 (the
quickest thing to do would be to rethink some of the new speed
limits and perhaps reduce them in some places)
Demographic
factor:
f14=
1.1 (this may be lower considering
our population is getting older)
New supply factor:
f15=.5 (by reducing demand
to about 8% of what it is now, to suggest a 50% renewable fuel
supply is being conservative, since we are close to
that volume now. Yet, we can expect increased use
of wind and solar
generated electricity that charge batteries of
hybrid cars and increased use of biodiesel and
alcohol)
By using
these numbers above we would be using only about 4.1 percent of the crude we are using today for
transportation. In this case our
own domestic reserves of crude oil would be able to meet the
demand and the United States Could Export Crude Oil!
Of coarse this would be very optimistic outlook. But with
increasing fuel costs as an additional motivator we can use the
above equation to identify which factors should be addressed
according to the region or city one is in. It may be
hard to get people to use public transportation if there is no good
system in place but then perhaps car pooling, vanpooling and a four day work
week could be considered. I would like to see
cities compete with each other as to who could become the most
energy efficient - be it in the transportation sector or some other
sector. WE all should hope the winners would brag about it
too. After all, in e$$ence we are all bidding on the same pot of
"Crude".
Please, Check out the calculator that helps estimate the cost of fuel for your commute over a years time.
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